Republican
Presidential
Candidates

Bush

Carson
Christie Cruz Fiorina Gilmore Graham Huckabee Jindal Kasich Pataki Paul Perry Rubio Santorum Trump Walker
Democratic
Presidential
Candidates
Chafee Clinton Lessig O'Malley Sanders Webb

2016 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES

PRIMARY ELECTION SCHEDULE | PRIMARY DEBATE SCHEDULE: GOP DEM | DELEGATE TRACKER | MORE

Election Day
November 8, 2016
Election Projection cannot screen all advertisements appearing here.  Therefore, I do not necessarily endorse the products and/or services shown.

Favorite Links

The Red Zone

Conservative Commentary from The Blogging Caesar

One complaint I hear often as I listen to debates and arguments on the hot topics driving political agendas these days is that all the heated words and heart-felt entreaties never serve to change anyone's mind. Once pro-abortion, for example, always pro-abortion. Well, perhaps not.

Sistah Toldjah, a long-time blogger friend of mine and very smart lady, is living proof. In her first offering for IJ Review, ST recounts her progression from pro-abortion to pro-life. It is a transparent and poignant look at how a college friend gently pointed her in the right direction, and began her change of mind. I highly recommend you head on over and read the whole thing. As she describes it:

They weren't pushy, but instead asked me why I believed what I did, and when I gave my superficial reasons, they suggested to me that I dig a little deeper, to think about the process involved in the termination of an unborn life. In essence, a light bulb had been switched on.
In the end, Sistah's mind was changed. And now, staunchly pro-life, she envisions what our nation might would look like if those of us who believe in the right to life of God's unborn followed her college friend's example.
If enough people did this, decades down the road we could be looking at a time in our country where only a small percentage of Americans believed it was okay to terminate an innocent unborn life, with the vast majority realizing that the era where millions of babies were lost due to abortion on demand was inexcusable and indefensible, and should never, ever be repeated.

Wouldn’t that be something?

It would be something, indeed.
Filed under:  Abortion 
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:06pm 08/03/15 :: link
The headline read "Ben Carson likens Islamic State to American patriots." "What???" I thought. I couldn't believe that the potential 2016 presidential candidate and conservative favorite had gone and said something so stupid. But when I read the article, I realized that it was just another case of the media misrepresenting and mischaracterizing a word from a conservative in public life.

Here's the actual quote by Carson, spoken during a speech at the RNC's winter meetings. After praising our early American patriots for their willingness to sacrifice their lives for the cause of freedom, he went on to say this about the Islamic State.

They got the wrong philosophy, but they're willing to die for what they believe, while we are busily giving away every belief and every value for the sake of political correctness. We have to change that.
Apparently the audience interrupted him with applause during the statement. They understood the meaning and accuracy of his words. He was no more likening Islamic terrorists to American patriots than he would have been likening Hitler to Roosevelt by calling them both 'world leaders.'

Shame on you, Steve Peoples.

Filed under:  Media Bias 
posted by Scott Elliott at 8:30pm 01/15/15 :: link
My feed reader has been abuzz lately with stories surrounding Senator Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and the disclosure of possible residency issues that might affect her campaign.  There is desire in some quarters to push for an investigation of Sen. Landrieu, who is in the midst of a very competitive re-election campaign down in the Bayou State.

A Louisiana blog called The Hayride has posted an examination of that intent in which the author comes to the same conclusion that my gut arrived at soon after catching first wind of this "controversy."

Here's the thing - these legal challenges aren't going anywhere. We've been here before with Republicans trying to get rid of Democrat senators in Louisiana on residency challenges, and as you might imagine the results weren't positive.

Back in 1992, this was tried on John Breaux - who was a whole lot less of a Louisianan at the time than Landrieu is now.

It went nowhere.

In trying to earn another term on Capitol Hill, Landrieu has a hard task ahead of her.  Republicans - especially Landrieu's top challenger, Bill Cassidy - need to leave her residency question alone.  They should avoid making her re-election any easier by reaching for a far-fetched TKO.

The piece goes on to focus on the real winning issue against her.

If you want to affect voters who haven't already decided to vote against her what you want to do is make everybody know that she owns a $2.5 million house in DC and have them realize how opulent her lifestyle is while the poor people in Louisiana suffer with bad health care and crime and crappy schools and lousy roads and no good jobs in the inner city.  You make her Marie Antoinette Landrieu from a far-off mansion in Washington, and you have her saying "Let them eat King Cake."
Indeed - but that might be too clever a plan for the GOP to adopt.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:36pm 09/02/14 :: link
Next Wednesday, Thom Tillis, Republican candidate for North Carolina Senate, will debate incumbent Kay Hagan.  The debate will feature an interesting twist.  Each candidate will be able to pose two questions to their opponent.  In preparation for the debate, Tillis is asking for suggestions.

What question do you think he should ask?  Click on the link to submit yours - and then shoot it to me in an email at scott - at - this website.com.  I'll update this post with questions I find especially interesting.

Filed under:  Kay Hagan  Thom Tillis  NC Senate Race 
posted by Scott Elliott at 4:48pm 08/30/14 :: link
Congressman Bruce Braley is busy trying to keep Tom Harkin's Iowa Senate seat in Democratic hands.  He's locked in a pretty competitive battle with Republican Joni Ernst.  I'm sure he's not thrilled to see this come out.
Bruce Braley Urged IRS to Investigate Tax-Exempt Conservative Groups
Democratic Senate candidate Rep. Bruce Braley (D., Iowa) was one of several Democratic lawmakers who urged the IRS to investigate tax-exempt conservative groups, tying him to a scandal that continues to embroil the Obama administration.
Time will tell how much this impacts his election bid, but, given the current closeness of the race, it can't help.
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:42am 06/19/14 :: link
I received an email in my inbox from the Wake County Republican Party.  (I am from the Tar Heel State and live in Wake County).  The note was so encouraging, I felt I'd share it here in The Red Zone.
Truthful Tuesday reveals more Republican successes

RALEIGH -- Last night at the Americans For Prosperity Town Hall meeting, several prominent speakers celebrated the General Assembly's budget discipline and tax reforms of the past three years, which have helped produce nearly 225,000 new jobs over the past three years and more people employed in North Carolina than ever before.  The unemployment rate has fallen from over 10 percent to 6.2 percent.

"Everybody is receiving a tax cut," Sen. Phil Berger, President Pro Tem of the NC Senate said.

He said:  "We've made great progress:  4.4 million people are working in North Carolina, that's 221,000 more than were working in January of 2011" when Republican leadership took the oath of office.

"We have lowered corporate taxes, to be competitive with the states around us.  We've moved up from 44th in the nation in business tax climate, to 17th. We are sixth in the nation in economic outlook," he said. "We are competing with low- and no-tax states.  To get the jobs, we must be more attractive than our neighboring states."

"This is the kind of progress that is making North Carolina one of the best states in the country to live, work and do business," said Donna Williams, Wake GOP chair, who attended the meeting.  "There's nothing better for every citizen than a strong economy.  Lower taxes make us more inviting to businesses, and revitalizing our economy will enable us to invest in education, infrastructure and other key services."

CEO magazine recently rated North Carolina 4th Best for Business across the country.

Over and over conservative policies lead to economic growth, benefiting those in all economic strata.  I'm glad to live in a state where Republicans hold the legislative and executive reins.
Filed under:  Unemployment  Policy 
posted by Scott Elliott at 10:17pm 05/28/14 :: link
On Saturday, I posted a harsh criticism of Kay Hagan for airing a blatantly deceptive and misleading ad about Thom Tillis and his comments on Obamacare.  Yesterday afternoon driving home from work, I was shocked and dismayed to hear another radio ad attributing the same misleading comments to Tillis.  This time the culprit wasn't a desperate Senator in danger of losing re-election.  This time the ad was produced by the man I had hoped would face her - Dr. Greg Brannon.

To copy Hagan's deception, Brannon has shown himself to be what I hoped he wasn't - just another slick politician.  I guess I'll be rooting for Mark Harris now.

posted by Scott Elliott at 10:17am 04/29/14 :: link
I'm not a big fan of Republican Senate candidate Thom Tillis.  I would much rather see Greg Brannon or Mark Harris take the GOP nomination.  But Tillis continues to lead the polls in the North Carolina Republican Primary race.  So when I heard a radio ad just now that played a clip of Tillis saying Obamacare "is a great idea," I cringed at the thought of him winning the nomination and wasting a great opportunity for a GOP pickup in the Senate.

Then my mind focused on the clipped nature of the sound bite, and my suspicion rose.  "Did he really say that?" I thought to myself.  The ad referenced an interview Tillis gave on a local Raleigh radio show hosted by Bill LuMaye.  A quick Google search revealed the truth.  Tillis actually spent a good bit of time before the alleged Obamacare endorsement talking about how he wanted to "focus on a systematic approach to eliminating the bad [of Obamacare]" because, as he characterized it, "it's not fiscally sustainable."  Then he added this sentence:  "It's a great idea that can't be paid for."

Who wouldn't think "Affordable Care" for everybody is a great idea?  So would a six-figure salary for everybody.  The truth is Tillis was not endorsing Obamacare in the least.  He was doing just the opposite.  And yet Hagan decided to approve a message blatantly mischaracterizing Tillis' words - and she knew full well what Tillis actually said.  This is not the act of an ethical, confident Senator, but a desperate, deceitful politician searching for anything - true or not, right or not - that will enable her to keep her job.

I think this ad was a mistake - don't be surprised if it backfires in a big way.  She should be ashamed of herself.

posted by Scott Elliott at 8:57pm 04/26/14 :: link
Since 2009 when the official U.S. unemployment rate stood right at 10% and the recession allegedly ended, we've seen a slow decline in the reported percent of Americans out of work.  Late last year, that number dropped below 7%, returning to a level not seen since 2008...or so that's what the official number says.

Tom Elia over at The New Editor has come up with a chart that gives a truer picture of the employment situation.  The graph illustrates an important fact that masks the real ills of the state of the American workforce.  In the last 4 1/2 years or so, thousands upon thousands have stopped looking for work.  They don't have jobs, but because they aren't actively looking, the government doesn't count them as unemployed.

As you can see from Tom's chart, if these folks who have dropped out are counted, the resulting - dare I say more accurate - unemployment number has remained remarkably stable and remarkably high, hovering around 11% since Fall of 2009.

Filed under:  Unemployment 
posted by Scott Elliott at 9:32pm 01/13/14 :: link
North Carolina already claims 9 Republican congressmen in its 13-seat delegation.  That number is now set to grow after Mike McIntyre's decision to step down at the end of this term.  McIntyre is the most moderate of the four Democratic representatives from the Tarheel State, but that might not have helped him hold his seat in a very conservative NC-CD7.

Already Larry Sabato, Charlie Cook and Stuart Rothenberg have pronounced the GOP to be the heavy favorite to pick it up.  In fact, both Cook and Rothenberg have moved the race to Safe Republican!  Apparently, McIntyre is the only Democrat in the district who could win here.

Looming large now is David Rouzer, the 2012 GOP nominee who barely lost to McIntyre last time around.  He has posted a press release regarding McIntyre's retirement.  Likely, the seat is his if he wants it - and from the sound of it, he does.

As a native North Carolinian myself, I'm elated at the prospect of adding another "R" to our contigent on Capitol Hill!

posted by Scott Elliott at 7:50pm 01/08/14 :: link
Objective projections, conservative lean.  That's Election Projection's new tag line.  For the last 10 years, I have sought to present projections on the election outcome based solely on the numbers, without distortion from my own wishes.  I think Election Projection's track record demonstrates a measure of success in that endeavor.  However, during that time, I have not attempted to keep my ideology out of the commentary here.  But on the other hand, neither have I given it full expression, knowing that many of my readers hold an opposing view.

This blog will provide a venue for me to comment on political issues and current events without placing any restraint on my conservative thoughts.  For liberal readers who cringe at the thought of another conservative rant blog, I have good news for you on two fronts.

First, having this space to post conservative reactions, explanations, interpretations and commentary will enable me to present "just the facts" on the main blog.  My intent and my commitment is to simply report objectively news about the elections on the front page.  No slant, no spin.

Second, I'm not much of a firebrand, and I try to temper my rants with civility and resist any malice.  So even in The Red Zone here at Election Projection, you'll likely not be too enraged by the commentary.  (Though, I make no promises about material I might link to!)

Filed under:  General Stuff 
posted by Scott Elliott at 12:00am 12/02/13:: link
Latest Posts
©Copyright 2003-2015 Scott Elliott, All Rights Reserved