Today, let’s start off with a quick review of yesterday’s huge poll dump from The Washington Post and SurveyMonkey. All one hundred polls are listed on EP’s Latest Polls page. With all this new polling data, you might expect the projected electoral college map to look a bit different. And indeed it does. Nineteen states have new ratings in today’s projections. All but 5 of the changes favor Republican Donald Trump. But only one of them results in a change in the projected EV tally. The Georgia presidential race and its 16 electoral votes have found their way back into Trump’s column, reducing Hillary Clinton’s still-massive electoral vote lead to 341-197.The tale of the unhappy voter is one of the biggest stories of the 2016 presidential election battle. Never have we had two nominees so soundly disliked. Fox News points out that the phenomenon is apparent in the number of undecided voters who make up the electorate at this stage of the campaign.
Many of those likely voters don’t like their choices. The share of undecided voters stands at 13 percent in the latest WSJ poll, 5 points more than at this point in the previous cycle.
In a potential bit of good news for Republicans, a disproportionate number of these voters are normally tried and true red team supporters.
More interesting is how many of those undecided voters are college-educated, white, suburbanites. This ought to be good news for Republicans since those voters are the key bloc of their coalition.Think of undecided voters as a glacier on a mountainside. As the ice melts, it’s bound to run off one way or the other. In this case, the Republicans would seemingly stand to benefit when this glacier gives way.
On the other hand, these undecideds may just be Hillary Clinton’s ticket to the White House. If they sit out, the Democrat will certainly benefit. And, as the article points out, they “aren’t budging so far.” Donald Trump’s fortunes may rest on how many of them he can convince to plug their noses and vote for him despite their distaste on November 8.
Two new congressional preference polls were released lately, and their affect on the projections is both significant and not so significant. With Democrats jumping out to an 8-point lead in Marist’s survey, rating changes for House races unanimously favor the blue team. Seven races have seen their projected results get bluer. That’s the significant part. On the other hand, because Democrats were projected to win just about all the competitive House races already, the update doesn’t impact the projected tally in the lower chamber. Democrats still hold a net 18-seat projected gain with the count staying at Republicans 229, Democrats 206.
Senators Rob Portman (R) and Michael Bennet (D)
Senate races in two states appear to be solidifying for the incumbent based on advertising trends. In the Ohio Senate race, currently projected as a Strong GOP Hold, Republican Rob Portman has been enjoying substantial leads in the polls of late, and Democrats seem to be giving up on Ted Strickland’s chances to defeat him.
The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has canceled another two weeks of ad reservations made on behalf of former Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland, who has struggled to build momentum in his campaign to unseat Portman. The decision comes just days after the DSCC and a leading Democratic super PAC both scaled back spending plans in a race that had been expected to be among the most competitive of the cycle.
On the other hand, Colorado looks to be a sure thing for Democrats now with Republican Darryl Glenn languishing in Colorado Senate polls. The same article reveals Democratic confidence in securing Bennet’s seat for another term.
Meanwhile, the DSCC is also canceling entirely the $5 million in reservations it had made in Colorado, where Bennet had anticipated facing a strong, well-financed Republican challenger. But the Republican nominee, Darryl Glenn, is a county commissioner who had little statewide profile and had raised little money before upsetting several better-funded candidates in the June Colorado primary. He reported having about $119,000 at the end of June, compared to Bennet’s $6 million.
These moves free up millions for Democrats to use in other competitive races. We’ll have to keep an eye on whether Republicans follow suit and move more money in to protect the likes of John McCain, Richard Burr and Roy Blunt.